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Pare down and think in terms of EV

Sebastian,

I read your post "The Million Dollar Question". It was very good. Thank you for sharing it. I can see myself in the friends you mentioned. I have these dreams of ways to increase my income. I have an internet side business that makes about $1500 a month. I know that there are many different ways I can scale it. In my mind I see the way, the things I need to do. But then I sit down to do those things and I freeze. I believe I am frozen by fear. I fear that if I do these things and they don't succeed, I have wasted my time. Or, I sit down and think of all the things I need to do to get to the endpoint and I think "that is a whole lot of work". So I don't do anything. I waste an hour reading HN and playing solitaire. It is really stupid.

Anyway, your post really made me think about it. I think I will write a plan of all the things I need to do to scale in one direction. Then I will break down the plan in small enough steps that can be accomplished in an hour or two. I'll write each step on a Post-It note. When I finish the step, I'll put it on the wall so I (and my wife) can see the progress. What do you think?

I think it's a good idea, and I empathize with where you're at. A few thoughts -

First, I think it can be helpful to start thinking in terms of expected value (EV) - I learned it from playing poker. If you play poker, you're often in a position where you make money on average by doing a good play, but you'll still lose a lot of the time. For instance, if you have an 80% chance of winning a hand and you get a big bet at you - of course you call. But 20% of the time you'll lose. Which sucks, but you've got to just shrug and not get upset because you did the right thing.

What the Hell Do You Want From Me?

On Tynan

Happy Saturday, everyone. I've got a million important yet totally boring things I have to do today, so I'm going to skip writing a long article. However, I have a few that I've been working on for next week that should be pretty good.

Right now I kinda write the blog on blind faith. I don't really know exactly what people expect from the site - I just try to balance between useful advice, funny stories, and a bit of what's going on in my life at the moment. My goal is for this to be the site you check every day, having no idea what you might be reading about next, but knowing that it will be interesting. But I'm curious - is there anything you'd like to see different around here? Is there a topic you wish I'd write about? Do you want more of any one type of post? Less? Is there anything about the site that's really annoying (yeah, yeah... I put at Home button at the top)? If you have any suggestions, I'd really love to hear them either in the comments here or by e-mail.

The blog is becoming more and more successful in terms of traffic. I average about 3000 visitors per day if you include the huge spikes from the more popular stories. It seems like we have a good portion of the people who comment on the blog, which is what I personally think makes it really interesting. I'm really grateful for every person who reads and/or replies in the comments here. I read every comment, and I'm flattered that people take the time to post them.

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